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Concerning Claims that COVID Poses a Greater Risk of Myocarditis than Does Vaccination

Josh Mitteldorf, Karl Jablonowski, Brian Hooker.

Abstract

A recent Lancet publication by 22 researchers from the British COVID Impact Consortium claimed in their Abstract that COVID-19, the disease, poses a greater childhood risk of cardiovascular injury, including myocarditis, than does the Pfizer mRNA vaccine against COVID. A more clinically relevant question would have been, do vaccinated or unvaccinated children have a greater risk of myocarditis? Though this would have been a simple computation from the data made available exclusively to them, the authors did not report this statistic. Instead, they created a sophisticated model, which generated the answer, buried in Table S16 of the Supplementary Materials: The risk from vaccination is twice as high as the risk from the disease. The authors swapped out the period of interest (the first 9 months of vaccine availability to minors) and compared an earlier time frame for the disease COVID with a later time frame for the vaccine. Thus they were able to generate the answer that they wanted. Though the error bars for these two risk calculations deeply overlap, they reported their result to a compliant press, which was eager to amplify it for public consumption. Data for this study are not available to other scholars for re-analysis.