Concerning Claims that COVID Poses a Greater Risk of Myocarditis than Does Vaccination
Josh Mitteldorf, Karl Jablonowski, Brian Hooker.
Abstract
A recent Lancet publication by 22 researchers from the
British COVID Impact Consortium claimed in their Abstract that COVID-19, the
disease, poses a greater childhood risk of cardiovascular injury, including
myocarditis, than does the Pfizer mRNA vaccine against COVID. A more clinically
relevant question would have been, do vaccinated or unvaccinated children have
a greater risk of myocarditis? Though this would have been a simple computation
from the data made available exclusively to them, the authors did not report this
statistic. Instead, they created a sophisticated model, which generated the
answer, buried in Table S16 of the Supplementary Materials: The risk from
vaccination is twice as high as the risk from the disease. The authors swapped
out the period of interest (the first 9 months of vaccine availability to
minors) and compared an earlier time frame for the disease COVID with a later
time frame for the vaccine. Thus they were able to generate the answer that
they wanted. Though the error bars for these two risk calculations deeply overlap,
they reported their result to a compliant press, which was eager to amplify it
for public consumption. Data for this study are not available to other scholars
for re-analysis.